Finau Doing Finau Things
How Golf Decoded Predicted Tony's Sunday Collapse
We’ve all been there, you’re scoring well, things seem to be going your way, and then WHAM! a string of unfortunate events, holes, and rounds sneaks up and sucker punches you from behind. These rounds…they’re painful. They stay with us for hours, days, and sometimes years. A subtle attitude of “well, this kind of thing always happens to me” becomes a mantra we repeat and can’t break free of. And if you are a Tony Finau fan like me, watching that round unravel makes you really for the guy. He’s arguably one of the best players to ever play the game…and this sort of thing “seems to always happen to him.”
Sure, he’s made nearly $50,000,000 on the PGA Tour but when you look at his entire career, you think: “Surely he should’ve won more!”
Here are his career stats: 6 wins, 11 Runner-Up Finishes, 4 Third Place Finishes, 35 Top 5s, 65 Top 10s, and 140 Top 25s on 231 cuts made in 292 starts. He’s certainly no stranger to success, and what a career he has had since turning pro in 2015.
But as I’ve tracked data over the years, I can’t help but wonder: how much better could he be? What if the answer has been right under our noses the whole time? What if…what if Golf Decoded holds that key? And moreover, what if it holds that key for you or your players? What if there was a reason for the backsliding or the final round stall outs? And what if it is as simple as 3 measly little data points? Well, I’m here to show you that, there is a reason, we can see it coming and we can do something about it!
Everyone loves when Golf Decoded picks winners and top 10s on the PGA Tour, it’s a lot of fun and shows the power of it all. But I’m a coach, and I’m more interested in helping those who “miss the mark,” whatever that means for them. Yes, even highly successful (and hardworking) people fail to achieve what they are fully capable of, and it’s usually because there’s something missing…often because we are looking in the wrong places.
LOOKING BACK
When I first wrote Golf Decoded at the end of 2021, I spent a bit of time talking about Tony Finau. In it I described the “stalling out” that I’ve seen often in Tony’s data. Examples would be that after two rounds of many tournaments he would be sitting at somewhere between 9 and 11-under par, only to finish out the tournament at this same score or only 1 or 2 strokes ahead of it. Moreover, when I began taking players’ first two rounds of data and using it to project them out to 4 rounds, an interesting pattern emerged for Tony.
At the end of those two rounds, sitting comfortably near or at the lead at 10 or so under par, the Golf Decoded data would project him to finish at that same score or only one shot above it. I would double check my formulas, compare to other files, and sit there scratching my head thinking “This can’t be right. He’s playing too well to finish like that. Surely there’s something wrong here.”
And there was something wrong, but it wasn’t with Golf Decoded, it was with me.
You see, Golf Decoded measures the player against the course, and while you can beat the course on occasion, how you beat it matters. And if you don’t recognize the subtleties in your strategic decision making against the course, the course can come back and bite with a vengeance, usually at the times of the highest stress! And this week, this week was one of those weeks. And another week in which I doubted, once again, what only Golf Decoded is capable of.
Seeing Disaster Coming
Below you’ll see Finau’s first two rounds projected to four rounds (the one in the black bordered space in the center above BPN):
You’ll notice that after two rounds, Tony was 9-under par, but the projection had him finishing the tournament at 4-under par. He would follow that with a 1-under par third round, 6 shots clear of that projection. “Perhaps this was another week where Finau would avoid disaster” I thought to myself.
But the stall was already in the making, and a big one at that.
Rocked by a shaky front nine 41, he would limp in on a birdie, bogey, bogey, birdie, bogey finish for a back nine 37 and final round 78 (+6), knocking him all the way back down to that 4-under projection. Absolutely heart wrenching to watch, especially since we all know, at least in part, what it feels like to have a round like that. And while this is one of the more severe cases for Finau, this stalling in the final two rounds has been a pattern for years - and likely the reason he hasn’t won perhaps dozens more events.
So, what’s going on here? Why does this happen? And why Tony of all people? He’s one of the greatest players of the last decade and loved by everyone!
First, we need to remember what Golf Decoded says, and what it measures. Fundamentally, we are measuring more than just a player’s skill set, we are measuring their strategic ability against the golf course; How well they understand, see, and adapt to what really makes golf difficult. Plus, because all of the data points are measured when they make their first attempt at the green, and thus their intent, we are measuring a different thing than skill alone.
The other thing that Golf Decoded says with BPN, SA and POA as the three data points, is that what makes golf fundamentally challenging goes far beyond hazards, rough, trees, etc. What actually makes it challenging are key slopes and edges that are nearest the hole. These determine the best route to play each hole, and thus the course. In addition, we are measuring all of a player’s shots over all the holes that they play (in real time) as that affects their direct performance. How we play one hole affects (both consciously and subconsciously) how we play all of the holes, and how we will play all of the rounds unless we are attuned to what’s really going on and do something about it (which occasionally players do).
Tony has a habit of really good POA (Proximity on First Attempt) of <700’ (sometimes <600’) in the first two rounds, but often with low SAs and low BPNs. Simply put, you can’t continuously average <10 BPNs and <12 SAs and expect to win on the PGA Tour. It’s why I was able to project Gary Woodland to win after just one round in his first win in years - he had hit 15 BPNs, 12 SAs and was sub-575’ POA in round 1 after a few weeks of 13+ BPNs…he was trending in the right direction. Missing BPNs (or Blue Zones as we’ve affectionately come to call them) come at a cost, no matter your skill, since it’s worth .2903 shots under par each time you hit one. The best of the best find ways to make par or better from these spots of course, but if you continue to hit a low quantity of them, the course will eventually win. This often happens when it means the most, because pressure reveals your most dominant habits - and your strategic decision making is a part of that - arguably the largest part of that.
If you want to avoid disasters like these, or stop your rounds from stalling out, or play your best when you’re hitting it well and hitting it poorly, you need to hit the blue zones! Moreover, you need to learn how to identify them and then go practice hitting them. They should be your closest confidant in this game!
And if you haven’t watched the Full Swing Documentary on Tony Finau, or you haven’t watched it in a bit, you should go give it a watch. After all, I’d love to see Finau go take several more trophies, break the cycle of missed blue zones, and achieve even more than what he’s accomplished in the last decade.
Boy is he fun to watch! Perhaps one day Golf Decoded will fall into his hands, and a worthy challenger to the crown of world #1 will emerge…
One can dream can’t they?
~Scott Hassee, PGA
I have included the blue zones and the full data above for those that know Golf Decoded so you can go back and check the work for yourselves. In addition, we are closing in on the launch of the education portal! Our release is aimed at mid-April so you too can “decode” your own golf game and play the golf of your dreams! Stay tuned!
