Sure, he’s made nearly $50,000,000 on the PGA Tour but when you look at his entire career, you think: “Surely he should’ve won more!”

Here are his career stats: 6 wins, 11 Runner-Up Finishes, 4 Third Place Finishes, 35 Top 5s, 65 Top 10s, and 140 Top 25s on 231 cuts made in 292 starts. He’s certainly no stranger to success, and what a career he has had since turning pro in 2015.

But as I’ve tracked data over the years, I can’t help but wonder: how much better could he be? What if the answer has been right under our noses the whole time? What if…what if Golf Decoded holds that key? And moreover, what if it holds that key for you or your players? What if there was a reason for the backsliding or the final round stall outs? And what if it is as simple as 3 measly little data points? Well, I’m here to show you that, there is a reason, we can see it coming and we can do something about it!

Everyone loves when Golf Decoded picks winners and top 10s on the PGA Tour, it’s a lot of fun and shows the power of it all. But I’m a coach, and I’m more interested in helping those who “miss the mark,” whatever that means for them. Yes, even highly successful (and hardworking) people fail to achieve what they are fully capable of, and it’s usually because there’s something missing…often because we are looking in the wrong places.

LOOKING BACK

When I first wrote Golf Decoded at the end of 2021, I spent a bit of time talking about Tony Finau. In it I described the “stalling out” that I’ve seen often in Tony’s data. Examples would be that after two rounds of many tournaments he would be sitting at somewhere between 9 and 11-under par, only to finish out the tournament at this same score or only 1 or 2 strokes ahead of it. Moreover, when I began taking players’ first two rounds of data and using it to project them out to 4 rounds, an interesting pattern emerged for Tony.

At the end of those two rounds, sitting comfortably near or at the lead at 10 or so under par, the Golf Decoded data would project him to finish at that same score or only one shot above it. I would double check my formulas, compare to other files, and sit there scratching my head thinking “This can’t be right. He’s playing too well to finish like that. Surely there’s something wrong here.”

And there was something wrong, but it wasn’t with Golf Decoded, it was with me.

You see, Golf Decoded measures the player against the course, and while you can beat the course on occasion, how you beat it matters. And if you don’t recognize the subtleties in your strategic decision making against the course, the course can come back and bite with a vengeance, usually at the times of the highest stress! And this week, this week was one of those weeks. And another week in which I doubted, once again, what only Golf Decoded is capable of.

Seeing Disaster Coming

Below you’ll see Finau’s first two rounds projected to four rounds (the one in the black bordered space in the center above BPN):

You’ll notice that after two rounds, Tony was 9-under par, but the projection had him finishing the tournament at 4-under par. He would follow that with a 1-under par third round, 6 shots clear of that projection. “Perhaps this was another week where Finau would avoid disaster” I thought to myself.

But the stall was already in the making, and a big one at that.

Rocked by a shaky front nine 41, he would limp in on a birdie, bogey, bogey, birdie, bogey finish for a back nine 37 and final round 78 (+6), knocking him all the way back down to that 4-under projection. Absolutely heart wrenching to watch, especially since we all know, at least in part, what it feels like to have a round like that. And while this is one of the more severe cases for Finau, this stalling in the final two rounds has been a pattern for years - and likely the reason he hasn’t won perhaps dozens more events.

So, what’s going on here? Why does this happen? And why Tony of all people? He’s one of the greatest players of the last decade and loved by everyone!

First, we need to remember what Golf Decoded says, and what it measures. Fundamentally, we are measuring more than just a player’s skill set, we are measuring their strategic ability against the golf course; How well they understand, see, and adapt to what really makes golf difficult. Plus, because all of the data points are measured when they make their first attempt at the green, and thus their intent, we are measuring a different thing than skill alone.

The other thing that Golf Decoded says with BPN, SA and POA as the three data points, is that what makes golf fundamentally challenging goes far beyond hazards, rough, trees, etc. What actually makes it challenging are key slopes and edges that are nearest the hole. These determine the best route to play each hole, and thus the course. In addition, we are measuring all of a player’s shots over all the holes that they play (in real time) as that affects their direct performance. How we play one hole affects (both consciously and subconsciously) how we play all of the holes, and how we will play all of the rounds unless we are attuned to what’s really going on and do something about it (which occasionally players do).

Tony has a habit of really good POA (Proximity on First Attempt) of <700’ (sometimes <600’) in the first two rounds, but often with low SAs and low BPNs. Simply put, you can’t continuously average <10 BPNs and <12 SAs and expect to win on the PGA Tour. It’s why I was able to project Gary Woodland to win after just one round in his first win in years - he had hit 15 BPNs, 12 SAs and was sub-575’ POA in round 1 after a few weeks of 13+ BPNs…he was trending in the right direction. Missing BPNs (or Blue Zones as we’ve affectionately come to call them) come at a cost, no matter your skill, since it’s worth .2903 shots under par each time you hit one. The best of the best find ways to make par or better from these spots of course, but if you continue to hit a low quantity of them, the course will eventually win. This often happens when it means the most, because pressure reveals your most dominant habits - and your strategic decision making is a part of that - arguably the largest part of that.

If you want to avoid disasters like these, or stop your rounds from stalling out, or play your best when you’re hitting it well and hitting it poorly, you need to hit the blue zones! Moreover, you need to learn how to identify them and then go practice hitting them. They should be your closest confidant in this game!

And if you haven’t watched the Full Swing Documentary on Tony Finau, or you haven’t watched it in a bit, you should go give it a watch. After all, I’d love to see Finau go take several more trophies, break the cycle of missed blue zones, and achieve even more than what he’s accomplished in the last decade.

Boy is he fun to watch! Perhaps one day Golf Decoded will fall into his hands, and a worthy challenger to the crown of world #1 will emerge…

One can dream can’t they?

~Scott Hassee, PGA

I have included the blue zones and the full data above for those that know Golf Decoded so you can go back and check the work for yourselves. In addition, we are closing in on the launch of the education portal! Our release is aimed at mid-April so you too can “decode” your own golf game and play the golf of your dreams! Stay tuned!

However, it comes at no surprise to us. Hitting BPNs and nailing those Blue Zones (regardless of proximity, greens hit, fairways hit, what the rest of the course is doing, etc) does wonders for golf games. Golf Decoded has proven itself time and again with dozens of collegiate players and a few programs reaping near immediate benefits, and a player getting into stage 3 of q-school in his first attempt last fall!

What does come as a surprise, however, is who took Mahanth Chirravuri (an amateur) to a top 25 finish in his Korn Ferry debut. That man would be Tommi Avant, who you likely know nothing about unless you are from the southwest part of the country. Tommi Avant played in his first PGA Tour event at the Waste Management Pheonix Open just a few short weeks ago. Tommi was exempt to play in the WMPO due to his win at the Southwest PGA Championship at Moon Valley Country Club in September of 2025.

What makes Tommi “an unlikely pick to accomplish this as a caddy” has nothing to do with his playing at the WMPO, nor the fact that he’s known this young man for years, but has everything to do with Tommi’s caddy, Louis Kelly, who stumbled upon Golf Decoded. Thanks to the algorithms hitting Louis’ Instagram feed and a craving for curiosity he decided to reach out to me. He said: “Scott, I need to know this stuff…and I need to know it now!” So, like people do, I hopped on a call with Louis the MONDAY of the week of the WMPO and chatted with him for 3 hours taking him through Golf Decoded and what those “blue lines” meant that I was drawing.

In Louis’s words (a very accomplished player himself who has caddied at the highest level):

“It’s like I’m seeing in color for the first time.”

He spent two days with Tommi charting and planning to use it for that tournament…but the first round, Tommi resisted (to his own peril…and can go look for yourself). He then turned to Louis at the end of that first round late in the evening and said: “I don’t care what you do, “blue zones” or whatever you want to call it, I’ll do whatever you say.”

Enter Round 2, the smoothest, easiest round on “cruise control” to start the round before an injury and darkness would bring a solid start of the round to a screeching halt. Louis hadn’t yet made a “believer” out of Tommi yet, but he had certainly piqued his interest.

________________________

Cut to this week - Louis and I hop on a call with Tommi to start the week and discuss Golf Decoded. We discussed the blue zones, what they mean, how to hit them and tracked data after every round. Unbeknownst to Mahanth (and still unknown to him), Tommi was “blue zoning” him for all four rounds. And for full context, Mahanth is one of the top-ranked collegiate players in the world with loads of talent and skill (you have to be to get an invite to play in a KFT event!) However, guys don’t often make the cut in their first professional event debut, let alone finish T22 and get an invite to play in next week’s event!

So how did Tommi do it? Well…simply by knowing where the zones were, he could direct his player where to place the ball, club selection, shot selection, etc. And if he got off…which we expected he would, we could turn the tide in our favor.

After a first round 7-under, things were looking quite nice…but as any player knows, that can be followed by a round where the averages shake themselves out a bit, and if the player (or caddy) isn’t fully aware of why this is happening, they are powerless to do anything measurable about it. So…let’s take a look at what happened in the first two rounds…

Here’s what Mahanth’s Golf Decoded Round Chart looked like in Round 1:

And here is Round 2:

So what are we looking at? This is how the player is playing against the golf course relative to par. The further down the chart moves, the further under par the player is trending and the more favorable the round is looking, regardless of what they are actually shooting in the moment. If it’s trending upward or flattening then a round is either headed in the wrong direction (course is winning), or the player has “stalled out.”

So, as you look at Round 1, you’ll notice that Mahanth is trending nicely downward…that is until we flatten out at the end of the round as the nerves of a 7-under par round begin to grab at you. Then, as we look at that second round, we will notice that not only did that flattening continue, but the round would climb into over par territory early. Good news is: Louis and I chatted with Tommi after round 1 and had him ready for this exact scenario. Here was our conversation:

“First, you’ll likely see some stalling at the start of round 2, make sure you don’t miss more than 2 BPNs in a row, and no matter what happens, whether he is 5-over or 5-under, get him to those Blue Zones (hit BPNs).”

For new faces here: EACH hit BPN is worth .2903 shots under par.

Well…guess what happened? Exactly what we predicted. Tommi was able to get Mahanth to hit the first target: no more than 2 missed BPNs in a row, but they had only hit 4 out of 10 to start. As Tommi would describe to us after the round, “I blue-zoned the heck out of him those last 8 holes.” The round was shaky and both caddy and player could feel it. But it wasn’t for lack of skill, it was for lack of strategic placement. Following the plan to a tee (pun intended) they were able to turn a cut-line scaring round at 2-over through the first nine, to a 2-under back nine and made cut.

Furthermore, if Tommi could hold Mahanth to his first two round Golf Decoded averages into the final two rounds, Mahanth was projected to finish the tournament at 9.38 under par. And with a birdie at the last on Sunday to bring the round to 9-under par, he would do just that, and get a top 25 finish to boot!

So when I talked about “is your strategic system or methodology dynamic?” this is what I’m talking about. The ability to perceive things that no one else sees, and then do something about it. And if you read my last article where golfers and coaches say “that’s just how golf is sometimes, you know,” we just proved once again that it doesn’t have to be!

So what’s there left to do? Wait one more week for the “Master Class” on Golf Decoded to be released, we are almost finished! It won’t be cheap, but it’ll be worth every penny and give you the most powerful tool to produce real-time measurable improvement in your golf game in a simple and easy to execute way.

You’ll go from “That’s just how golf is sometimes” to knowing how to make it not be so…

This is Golf Decoded. Come and join us!

~Scott Hassee, PGA

What made me say that? Well, for one, it was his first round data, combined with his actual score:

POA: 555’

BPN: 15

SA: 12

Score: -6

What stood out was not just that Woodland had POA and sub-600 (a good recipe to be in contention), but that BPNs were at 15. BPNs that are this high are an indicator of a player having a very solid understanding and “feel” for the course. Good ball-striking is certainly a catalyst for this, but it goes far beyond that - a player must be able to place their ball in the most favorable conditions, and to do so steadily over and over again, not just for a few holes or sporadically throughout the round. Moreover, this put Woodland at a Golf Decoded PPV score of -3.74 (one of the highest I’ve seen in the last several weeks). This means Woodland beat the course by more than 2 shots (Round Score: 6-under vs. PPV of -3.74).

I have more reason to support the reason I sent that text after just a single round, however. Last week at the Valspar, Woodland was trailing behind his PPV of around -10.23 by more than 5 shots (he finished that tournament at 5-under). He showcased several rounds of POA that was sub-600 and more importantly notched several rounds of BPNs of 13 or higher. His getting “beat by the course” last week was largely due to some minor hiccups in the short game, something that should clean up as the season progresses. At their level of play, I’m not largely concerned with these minor hiccups and setbacks. If a player is “playing the course well” they’ll eventually catch up as they settle in and adjust throughout the season. Big break out rounds are coming even if we don’t see them yet.

So my text of “We may be witnessing Woodland’s Rise from the Ashes” is founded in a trend of playing the course well which also brings with it stress-free golf. And for someone who’s struggles from brain surgery have created a great deal of torment in his life, a little stress-free golf for the game he has loved is a welcomed friend.

Will Woodland win? Who knows.

But his Golf Decoded data would certainly suggest that what we are witnessing is no accident or just some “good fortune.” He’s found the subtleties of the course and is exploiting them to his advantage.

And for all of us who’ve experienced setbacks in life…what a rewarding and well deserved win it would be for not only Woodland, but for all of us who need to be reminded to keep pressing on, embrace difficulty, let it not hold you back, but be the wind your sails need to carry your game into the future.

I’ll be watching with eager anticipation!

I hope you will too.

~Scott Hassee, PGA

Stay tuned as we are working diligently to release the full education portal here in just the next 10-14 days. Masters week is fast approaching, and so are lower score for you and for me! I’ll contact you all very soon!

I’ll start with a story about a conversation with a coach I had yesterday about one of the players on one of the tours. As we were talking, this line was uttered:

“It’s the best they’ve hit the ball and yet they missed the cut. That’s just how golf is sometimes you know?”

That second line took me aback, ‘just how golf is, huh?’ I thought to myself. Are we looking at the same set of data? Are we having the same discussion here? Have you not been listening to what I’ve been saying?

In my first book on strategy The Champions Playbook I say in my first chapter “Everything you say and do tells me everything you believe about the game of golf and yourself.” After 17 years of teaching and coaching, this is the truest statement I’ve ever written or spoken. ‘That’s just how golf is.’ What’s that statement tell us? A whole lot for one. First off, it fails to seek any other answer or solution. Second, it tells us that if they hit it so good, why didn’t they score lower? That would tell me that a tour player at any level when they hit it good should be able to score a good bit lower. Third, that the dominant thought is that a player should score low when they are hitting it well and poorly when they are hitting it poorly. Any great coach in any sport would tell you that you need to “learn how to win ugly.”

So, let’s talk a minute about the problem with this line of thinking and how Golf Decoded gives us a vantage point as to what’s going on in real time, and what to do about it. After all… shouldn’t you score your lowest when you’re hitting it at your best?

Rigidity of Systems - The Average Shot Problem

In The Champions Playbook I talked about playing golf with your average shot, just like any and all of the strategy systems out there teach. Using launch monitor data gives us a detailed glimpse into this information and even modern high tech systems (like Arccos or GameGolf) are beginning to allow you to select where you aimed and then they know where it finished to give you a better idea of real time average shot patterns. This principle has been incredibly beneficial to the overall golf world and fits with the idea of playing away from the flag and hazards. It’s really good information. However, it’s still quite static.

What do I mean by this? The problem is we are humans with fears, concerns, preferences, shot types and abilities and more who are playing a game where we hit shots from uneven lies, different types of lies, changes in elevation, hole styles, and more. The average shot pattern runs aground the moment we have to hit anything less than full, from anywhere other than a flat lie from fairway grass to a green with no hazards or trouble, and with a visually or mentally comfortable shot. The moment the ball is in the rough, there are elevation changes, wind of varying degrees, or a lie that is anything but perfect on a par 3, all of the specifics of this “principle” and these “systems” are dead in the water. They work “kind of” but they fail to get the most out of every round and if a player is a bit “off” - yeah…all bets are off pal!

But not with Golf Decoded, Golf Decoded is a living, breathing, dynamic thing. It allows players to decide the route themselves, how they want to get it there, how they uniquely want to play the hole or the course that day. I’m not telling you HOW to hit it there, I’m telling you THAT you should hit it there. In addition, you can look at your 3 data points in real time and make adjustments on the fly. Missing a lot of BPNs? Hit more of them to secure control of your round. Hitting BPNs but not hitting it close? Nudge your proximity closer. Struggling to Hit BPNs and hit it close? Take a deeper look at why in real time, perhaps you are missing the SA, perhaps you’re out of your routine (mental or physical), perhaps you’re missing information and selecting poor targets / shots / clubs.

But, Scott, you can’t tell people to do that!

Why not? That’s how the game really is. These three data points are statistically proven and the targets are wide and large. They are going to miss greens, so why not tell them where they should hit it if they miss the green? They are going to miss fairways, why not tell them which side to miss it on? They are going to have days they can’t hit the ball as well as they would like or struggling with putting and pitching, so why wouldn’t we give them the freedom to adjust as needed to give themselves more favorable positions to play all of these shots from?

Golf Decoded doesn’t look at fairways, greens, rough, uneven lies, bunkers, or even hazards for that matter as the fundamental thing that makes golf difficult or that any of those things are inherently in and of themselves good or bad. It’s a player’s golf ball in relation to those key slopes and features of the green and how they approach them that makes the game what it is. Regardless of how you decide to get to the spots, those spots are what the game is all about! And you better be able to adjust and be dynamic in order to perform at your best. A rigid system that says “hit it here because that’s your average shot” will not get the most out of all of your rounds, it can’t.

“That’s just how the game is sometimes.”

Or is it?

Golf is a dynamic sport. Just like every other sport. We need to be able to play the game that way, and if we are “hitting it great” and missing cuts, then we don’t know how to really play the game of golf. And if we refuse to acknowledge and adapt according to the fact that we can, and should, learn how to both win “pretty” and win “ugly” then we will continue to underperform week in and week out, year in and year out. Moreover, if we think a system that says with “certainty” aim here because of ________ will solve the uncertainty you feel within, then we need to have a deeper conversation about your mind and mental state (a conversation for another day).

So if you think “That’s just how golf is sometimes, you know?”

I’m here to tell you it doesn’t have to be.

~Scott Hassee, PGA

Now, before you begin misunderstanding what I just said and what I’m about to describe, understand that strokes gained does a perfect job at measuring what it’s supposed to measure. Mark Broadie’s Book “Every Shot Counts” was a wonderful read that completely reshaped the way the game of golf was understood. His measure of strokes gained allowed us to measure players against one another beyond the typical “good things” like hitting fairways, greens, making putts and up and down percentages. So, before you take the stance that I’m anti-strokes gained, understand that I have no problems with what it measures, and it gave players a way to compare themselves to their peers. Seems like a good idea, right?

Well…perhaps not.

One of the things that has always intrigued was “Game Theory” — a branch of mathematics that looks at how people “play games” from everything such as a simple game of checkers, to business planning, and more. The fundamentals of game theory apply to everything in life, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned in being around it, it’s this: in order to win and successfully progress in any “game” we must first fundamentally understand the game that we are actually in.

What do I mean by this?

The first thing we need to talk about is two different types of “games”: Sequential Games and Simultaneous Games. Sequential Games are of the type that we experience in the majority of the games and sports that we play: card games, monopoly, cornhole, Catan (any Catan lovers out there?), basketball, football, baseball, tennis, and even running events from track and field. Sequential games are games in which player’s take turns making moves that directly influence the other player. For instance, the card I play in a game of spades will directly impact the next player’s move. In a game like football, the way the offense sets up affects how the defense sets up and so on. And in sports these moves are often instantaneous reactions to real time movement where volume of experience, studying patterns (film), and being able to react quickly to the opponent are what separate players across the board.

But then there’s a game like golf. 100+ players in the field all trying to do one thing: shoot the lowest score they possibly can without any ability to directly affect the other players. Sure, we take turns, but that knowledge and choice has no direct bearing because I’m unable to be aware of how all of those players are playing, and their choices in any moment in time do not impact my choices (except in small moments in stroke play and at certain times in match play). Even if a few players who are playing the same hole, from the same distance, who hit the same shot shape and carry it the same distance, their decision as to what they should do could be entirely different. A simple wind change or how each player has been playing up to that point will affect their individual decision (at least it should) far more than whatever the other players in the group just did. Golfers get stuck in this mode of comparison far too often - playing the players in their group instead of playing the course. So what am I describing here?

Golf is, fundamentally, what’s called a Simultaneous Game as it regards the players they are playing against (particularly for stroke play). Simultaneous games are ones in which players make moves without knowledge of the other players moves. Yes, in golf you are playing with 1-3 other players and you may have knowledge of their particular moves, but their moves (and the moves of the dozens of other players in the fields) are unknown to you at any given moment in time. So to play against the other player is a fools’ errand - because you are attempting to play a game that is not the one that you are actually in. It’s like trying to play checkers when you are actually in a game of chess - those moves won’t work (aside from the fact that those aren’t even options in chess).

And if you’re understanding where I’m going with this, you can see the problem we run into with Strokes Gained. After all…what is strokes gained a measurement of? You against your peers. But that information is largely only helpful if we are able to diagnose a specific weakness that we were unaware of before, and even once we are aware of it, this stat lacks the ability to produce any real-time change. It’s almost exclusively a descriptive stat. Meaning it can only tell you what happened after the round was over…and it’s only prescriptive to the point of “you need to go work on ______ before your next event.”

So what does golf need then? Well…we need a way to measure a player against the golf course. But it, too, needs a way to produce real, on the fly, in the moment information for us to improve our scores against the course, and thus the field. And the traditional stats won’t do it…Mark Broadie and strokes gained proved that out as fairways, greens, and hazards dropped in value in favor of more distance. It showed that what makes golfers good or bad isn’t in their ability to hit the most fairways, greens or even avoid “bad areas” but that there was more to the game (and distance matters). The problem is…we still came up short…because we still aren’t measuring the game we are actually in, and the awesome systems and apps that are out there lack the “on the fly” dynamic decision making that’s required to truly get the most out of every round that we play.

Enter Golf Decoded.

The first and only system that is prescriptive, descriptive, allows for tangible and statistically accurate on the fly adjustments, measures the player directly against their primary opponent: the golf course, corrects mental errors and poor frameworks, and is so simple (3 data points) that even a caveman can do it!

No other system can do all of this. No other system allows for an about face mid-round. No other system is prescriptive, descriptive, and in the moment. Only Golf Decoded can do all of it. Because it is a measure of you against the golf course, the most essential elements that affect scoring on the golf course - and no, it’s not fairways, greens, rough, trees, hazards that are at the bedrock at what drives scores down (though they are all important). It is key slopes and features of the green that make golf challenging, such that even a 3 yard change in hole location can change the entirety of how a hole is to be played!

So…if you’re not a Golf Decoded nut, yet…I hope this piques your interest! We are in a sequential game — against the golf course — and we need to learn how to win that game. We need to be taught how to maneuver and adjust on the fly - not just on gut instinct - but with real data, that has a specific value and formula. Are there times golf becomes sequential against the golf course and other players? Absolutely - but they are small moments and live largely in the match play world.

It’s time we really learn how to play the game of golf, and Golf Decoded is the gateway to doing so. As a final aside here: we as golf professionals need to get on the golf course with our students frequently and teach them how to play, not just how to swing, and not just how to follow a system. We need to dialogue, in real time, on the course, playing alongside them about how to bring scores down. We need to dive deeper and become increasingly more transformational, more holistic, and thus create greater impact!

So stay with me, Masters Week is coming, and so too is the most powerful strategic framework to enjoy the game at the highest level you’re capable of achieving.

This is Golf Decoded.

~Scott Hassee, PGA

As I write this, I’m sitting on the couch watching The Players on spring break with my wife and kids, monitoring a few key players and reflecting on some recent events. Namely, a school out west and two in the south. The one program that I teach west of the Mississippi moved up more than 30 slots in one semester last season with Golf Decoded, and they are now inside the top 70 for both the men’s and women’s programs for the first time in program history, just under one year later. More than that, their players have notched a number of individual wins and carded many personal bests in competition. Needless to say, Golf Decoded has made a huge impact on their program.

To start this week, I took a moment to visit Miles College and teach their players about Golf Decoded, headed by coach Leonard Smoot. The cool thing about Miles is that they were one of the first two collegiate programs I began working with from the strategic side back in 2018, and they were a crucial part of my first book, “The Champions Playbook,” which I wrote back in 2019. This program has been teetering on the edge of greatness, with nearly every player having fired sub-70 rounds in competition, but they have yet to really break into the level where they are competing for a national title. The excitement among them was absolutely contagious as I traveled to meet my family for the remainder of spring break. I can’t wait to see what Golf Decoded does to unlock their program.

While those two things are exciting and thrilling, what really got my juices going this week was a phone call during my long drive on Wednesday night about another program in the south whose coach has been slowly teasing and testing Golf Decoded within his program. His players were facing one of the top-20 programs in the country in a recent tournament, and there were two holes, and two hole locations in particular, that picked them up more than seven shots against the competition. The coolest part of this story is the particular hole design, a hole design that I get tons of pushback on. When you see the hole location and see where the BPN is drawn, you’ll look at me like most people do and say, “We can’t possibly try to hit it over there. There’s no room on the green!”

Well… their coach decided to take a slightly different approach on this par 5. They played it to the left off the tee and on any layups, trying to hit it either into the end of that bunker or left of it if it didn’t go straight at the green. I wish I could’ve been a fly on the wall as he described how all of the coaches from the top three teams were on this hole together helping their players. I can just imagine the looks on their faces when group after group came through and they realized they were getting lapped while playing from what appeared to be the completely wrong side of the hole.

The difference: they all wanted to play this hole from the right, hit it toward the center of the green (right), and take on the hole that way. Moreover, they even had shots that ended up in this “short-sided” situation, being in the top end of that left bunker or left and long of a back-left pin when they missed the green. This reality simply can’t be ignored.

The coolest part? They played this hole at 2-under par while the strongest team in the field played it at 3-over par. For my college players and coaches, you know what a five-shot swing will do for your finishing position, rankings, and psyche. To go a step further, they also played another hole that historically has been a struggle for them at this event, finishing several shots lower as a program on that single hole. So on two holes alone, they picked up more than seven shots. Wow… what a powerful move.

I can tell you this: if you want an edge, Golf Decoded is it. It considers the important nuances of key slopes and features of the golf course that blow holes in traditional thinking about how we are supposed to play the game. And if you let it, you’ll benefit too. If not, take the risk at your own peril. Give me a few more weeks and the entire education portal will be open to help you really understand Golf Decoded deeply, embrace its simplicity and differences, and begin making great rounds happen more often while keeping those rough rounds at bay.

So if you want to really benefit, I suggest you go back and read all the articles that have been posted so far, and be ready to jump into the education when it releases just in time for Masters Week, the real start of the golf season.

Enjoy The Players Championship. I’ll report back soon with some cool details from this “fifth major.”

Before we begin though, there’s one key thing about Jack Nicklaus’ design styles and preferences that you need to understand. While he has gone through different phases of what he likes to see in golf courses, there is one constant that shows up in nearly all of his designs: most of the green complexes aren’t circular or oval, and if they are, there are slopes that make them play more difficult than they look. Nicklaus doesn’t just build greens that can benefit a player who can hit it straight or control their distance. He builds them to require you to be able to control both distance and direction, and you may even have to shape the golf ball multiple directions in order to not be brought to your knees begging for mercy, especially if you’re in South Florida where winds can present additional challenges.

One such hole design is actually hole 11, with a green that is shaped like a stretched out, sideways kidney bean with a tier that runs along the center contour of that green. A ball with great distance control but that’s off slightly to the right or left will make it careen off to the side, trickling little by little further away from the hole or even into a hazard. Worse yet, from a Golf Decoded perspective this drives the POA high and can cause missed BPNs, a combination that’s a challenge to recover from and, even for the best players in the world, can end in a double bogey or worse. Even “great shots” can end in awful places.

With that backdrop in mind then, how do we handle the Bear Trap? Let’s start with a quick look at the first design features with a look at Round 1 for all three holes. You’ll notice there is water everywhere. Why does this matter?

Water and hazards present interesting challenges around Golf Decoded, but they get caught in the data anyway. If you’ve been paying attention you’ll remember that hitting the BPN is worth -.2903 shots under par, but hitting it in a hazard is worth an entire shot. And for certain holes the BPN points into the hazard. So what’s the tradeoff? How much risk are you willing to take on? What kind of shot or target can you pick that gets the highest number of your shots both in the BPN but avoids the situation of missing a BPN with high POA? Because as you’ll see by looking at hole 15 after the second shot, there are a number of players whose second shot from outside the BPN ended up in or near the hazard, resulting in a double or worse. So while they avoided the hazard on the first shot, they got caught with a double anyway.

In my 5 years of teaching Golf Decoded around the country, groups of holes like this can offer some major insights as to how players are playing the course as a whole. One of the important things to remember about the game of golf in general is that we need to handle the easy shots and holes well. Players should be hitting a high number of BPNs before they meet holes like this. In many cases, players that aren’t hitting the ball in good locations, or they are underperforming from a score perspective, will play these holes worse. And not just because they miss BPNs.

I saw this last week at Riviera where players will miss a number of BPNs in a row and then they will get back to hitting BPNs but lose their POA, Proximity On first Attempt. So while they are better in terms of location, they are all of a sudden further from the hole. And when you are dealing with a lot of hazards in the Bear Trap with nuanced slopes and hole locations, this is where we may see a player hit the BPN but, all of a sudden, with high POA the ball ends in a hazard, a likely scenario at the Bear Trap. Why do they do this? The answers are long and nuanced, but one of them is the mental game, a topic I won’t discuss until the full Golf Decoded training portal opens in a few weeks.

The final thing that’s important to point out is that because golf has a formula, Golf Decoded outputs a player’s Predicted Par Value, PPV. For instance, if a player shoots 2 under and their PPV is -3.7, then the course beat them by 1.7 shots. And without going into big detail here, the ONLY way that those shots were missed was by short game or penalties. Period. So if we go back to our example of hole 17 at PGA National from Round 2, you’ll notice that most of the balls in the collection area left of the green make bogey. Remember, slopes and edges make it difficult to get the ball close to the hole no matter what type of shot you’re hitting.

So if you’re going to beat the Bear Trap, you’ve got to wedge and putt it like a champ, hit the spots where you can, and avoid the hazards. Better yet, make sure you’re playing the rest of the golf course effectively so that you can come clear headed and calm to challenge the Bear Trap.

And if you come out of the Bear Trap torn to shreds, there’s always the par 5 18th for a shot at redemption.

I know I threw a lot of new application about Golf Decoded at you here and hinted at some things that we can deduce from Golf Decoded data. I’ll speak occasionally about each of these items, but save most of it for the Education Portal that’s coming soon. It really is simple: Hit the BPNs and manage your POA. Three data points are all we need to unlock a world of learning how to play this marvelous game of chess. So stay tuned, share it with your friends, and start learning more about Golf Decoded. You’ll never see the game the same way again.

Now remember, the SA line is specifically drawn and fixed from round to round, but which side to play from depends on the direction the BPN points. This is how announcers and players can get confused by a hole like 8 at Riviera, where they need to play against the traditional idea that a left pin should be played in from the right, and vice versa.

To read more about hole 8 at Riviera, click the link below.

So what in the world does this have to do with the Cognizant Classic at PGA National? Well, the Champion Course at PGA National is full of doglegs and fun little greens that are offset to the side of the fairway and the hole. Why does this matter? Well, sometimes a course setup like this can allow both the shorter and longer hitters to have an equal advantage, on top of the fact that well-placed water hazards and fairway bunkers make hitting some of the SAs nearly impossible, or at least dangerous to attempt. Before I give you an example, let me remind you of how the SA line is drawn:

“Through the centerline of the fairway, parallel to the shape of the hole, as it meets the green.”

Note, too, that this doesn’t say at the middle of the green, nor does this line snake through the fairway all the way to the tee. This line is a simple straight line that runs on forever and ever. The side from which it is preferred to play in is defined by the BPN. So what does all of this mean, and what are the potential implications of the tournament?

Well, with the majority of the holes having a significant shape, sometimes getting to the correct side of the SA line is simply a matter of taking more or less club or determining how much of a dogleg to cut off. You’ll see in the example below from hole 4 that this SA line intersects the dogleg. Moreover, depending on where the flag is, a longer or shorter drive, or left or right of that line, can make a tremendous difference in how close a player gets to the hole. So having an intimate knowledge of the subtleties of the BPN and how it affects the side we should approach the green from can be advantageous (especially if playing from the correct side of the SA line improves your POA by 22 feet).

And if history repeats itself like it did on hole 8 at Riviera and does week in and week out from course to course, we might have players scratching their heads as to why they struggle to score on this course. Plus, if you’re forced to miss the SA due to a hazard on the correct side, you’re then left to ensure that you hit most of the other SAs and figure out how to both hit the BPN and keep your POA from spiking.

Little setups like this are a lot of fun to watch, and with greens subtly offset and the real reason as to what drives scores down is hidden from view, we could be in for a thrilling week at an otherwise overlooked tournament since the big players aren’t in the field. I’ll be posting BPNs daily here, as well as listing the SAs below, for you to follow along as you watch this weekend.

Sit back, grab your favorite snack, your Golf Decoded SAs and Daily BPNs, and settle in. This is going to be worth watching.

For those that aren’t familiar with Hole #8, it’s a rare design feature that has a double fairway (see image below). This double fairway is meant to give players multiple options to play the hole, a style of golf hole design that’s called “strategic.” Strategic holes are, at their core, designed to give players multiple routes and options as to how to play the hole and take on varying levels of real or perceived “risk.” The double fairway is quite rare, but is one such example.

But here is where things get interesting. Here are the direct words from commentators on Sunday afternoon during the final pairing:

“Yesterday (Saturday), the scoring average was better on the right side, but the flag was on the right. Doesn’t seem to make sense. Flag on the left today, but left is the way to go.”

One of the key design features of this hole is that the angle and orientation of the green are “supposed” to make a shot from the right fairway to a back-left pin more favorable. And that would be true if the flag weren’t located the way it is relative to key slopes of the green. This should not be overlooked. So how in the world was playing from the right fairway on Saturday to a right pin better, and playing to a left pin on Sunday from the left fairway better? Well, the BPN, of course. Let’s take a look.

Round 3 BPN

Round 4 BPN

Now remember this about the BPN: whichever direction it points is the side you want to play in from (the SA, Side Approach). So with the SA line drawn as it is below, “parallel to the shape of the hole, through the centerline of the fairway (in this case between the fairways), as it meets the green,” a hit SA for Saturday would be right of that line, and a hit SA for Sunday would be left of that line.

Now, let's take a look at the scores from both days from the tee shot with scatter plots below.

Round 3 SA

Round 4 SA

So while our announcers were perplexed by this anomaly, Golf Decoded was not. One of the fundamental realities of the game that Golf Decoded espouses is that angles matter and key slopes and features of the green matter. More than that, they matter so much that they are the core fundamental reality as to why players score the way they do, how the ball gets close to the hole, and why players struggle to repeat good rounds.

So what causes scores and rounds to be low? Why do these key slopes and features cause rounds to be low? What is it about playing from those different angles for the SA and on the correct side of those lines for the BPN that causes a player to play well? Well, that’s what this Substack is all about.

Fundamentally, we have to get to a point where we understand that the way we view and play the game of golf is through a certain lens. Golf Decoded pushes heavily against all of the lenses through which people might view the game. When I first started this and stared at the data threads and the regression analysis, and looked at the strength of the fit of this model (p-value < .0001 — for those that are not mathematically inclined, that is highly statistically significant), I couldn’t help but doubt it for weeks and months on end. Then, as you teach it to others, observe it in real life, apply it to your own game and to high-level competition for five years, you begin to realize that what you once thought was true about the game of golf no longer holds up. You change your entire perspective about what makes certain shots, holes, or courses easy or hard. You manage expectations like never before, and you realize that you can actually adjust on the fly. More importantly, you should adjust on the fly.

If you’re new here or don’t believe any of this, first know this: I was in your shoes once. I tried to fight it every way I could. I would encourage you to engage more deeply, let go of your prior notions of the game of golf, and seek to understand Golf Decoded. I’ll be launching a full education portal here within the next few weeks, and I invite you to explore it further. And if you have questions and really want to learn, just ask.

I can’t wait to continue to share with each of you the wonders of Golf Decoded. It’s a beautifully simple way to play the game of golf, and it’s worth learning.

You’ll never see the game the same again.

As we all know, there are a myriad of reasons a player goes through struggles in this beautifully elusive game. While I can’t speak to the specifics of Scottie’s situation, I can offer a lens through which it may be beneficial to view some of these recent rounds.

So how does Golf Decoded tell a bigger story? Let’s look at the data from two key points: the first round at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and the first three rounds here at Riviera.

If you’re new here, please take a look at the following article for a brief explanation of what Golf Decoded is and the importance of its three data points: BPN, SA, and POA.

Quick reminder of Values

• BPN: -.2903 shots (under par, not to be confused with Strokes Gained)

• SA: -.0597 shots (again, under par)

• POA: +.0058 shots (again, over par for each foot further from the hole)

In Scottie’s first round at the Waste Management, he hit only 7 BPNs. That is well below the 12+ I am used to seeing from him. Moreover, his POA was over 800 feet, also well above the sub-650 feet we typically see. That combination is the recipe for difficult, stressful rounds.

And those spots where he two-chipped? Yes, missed BPNs. Does that remind you of another recent player I discussed in relation to putting? It should.

Now let’s shift to a current, in-the-moment conversation about Scottie at Riviera, a place where, a few years ago, the discussion centered on how poor his putting was. The power of the BPN at a course like Riviera really stands out.

So what are Scottie’s current Golf Decoded numbers?

There’s a lot we can deduce from this simple table. First, you’ll notice his POA has fallen each round, including a massive drop in Round 3 to under 500 feet, which is very low even for a Tour player. Second, we can see that his BPNs were high to start, then very low, and then back up again in Round 3. Aside from this being abnormal for Scottie, that up-and-down pattern is fairly indicative that we aren’t fully in control of where our misses are. While we could go further here, the bigger story lies in what happens between hit and missed BPNs for Scottie through the first 54 holes.

Here is Scottie’s scoring for hit BPNs versus missed BPNs:

Hit BPNs: 7 under

Missed BPNs: 2 over

That’s a 9-shot differential. That’s huge. Moreover, Scottie has a few missed short putts in his first three rounds on par 5s or on bogeys following hit BPNs that came from, you guessed it, the missed BPN side of the line. So the real differential here is likely 10 to 12 shots stemming from the wrong side of the hole for Scottie.

This story was true at Riviera in 2024 as well. He was 1 under on missed BPNs and 7 under on hit BPNs that year, and he missed a number of short putts from the wrong side, even on holes where his approach was in the BPN, meaning his second putt was outside the BPN.

So where will Scottie finish today? Who knows. If he continues the trend of keeping his POA low and can rack up a few more BPNs than he did in the first three rounds, we may see another rise from the ashes into a top 10 finish or better.

Regardless, this begs bigger questions: Why is missing the BPN so detrimental to scoring? and What do we need to understand about the deeper roots of this game in order to play and score more effectively?

Well, that’s what this substance is all about. You’ll have to wait just a little while longer as I piece together the bigger story.

Thanks for tuning in, especially to the new readers here. Stay tuned.

The craziest part of it all is this: this will be the second time I’ve presented in front of a room of my peers with no time for extended explanations or formal proofs. It should be interesting. So as I’ve thought about where to begin, I decided to start with a simple statement:

Golf has a formula.

Score = -1.8856 + .0058xPOA - .2903xBPN - .0597xSA

p-value < .0001

For those who are mathematically inclined, this is intriguing. For those who dislike numbers, it can feel overwhelming. A formula? Really? Surely golf can’t be this simple.

To some degree, that skepticism is fair. You cannot explain everything that happens in golf with only three data points. What you can do, however, is build a model that fits tightly and correlates strongly with what causes scores to rise and fall.

Before I explain what BPN, SA, and POA mean, let me clarify what Golf Decoded is actually measuring. The formula above measures a player against the course, specifically its key design features: slopes, edges, and angles. These influence not only where the ball finishes, but how a golfer sees and plays the game. What the formula suggests is this: slopes, angles, and distance from the hole are central to where the ball ends up. Not only that, but there are specific values attached to each.

Sound crazy? I thought so too. Until I continued tracking it on the PGA Tour.

Over the last five years, more than 15,000 holes have been tracked on the PGA Tour. During that time, I’ve seen a player reach Stage 3 of Q-School on his first attempt, more than six collegiate victories, more than a dozen college players lower their scoring averages by 2.5 or more strokes, and several collegiate programs move up more than 40 spots in the rankings in a single semester. Across average golfers, the improvements have been just as clear. The data works.

So what are these three data points?

BPN – Ball, Pin, Nearest Edge

This refers to the orientation you want your ball to have relative to the flag and the nearest edge. The nearest edge is defined as the closest slope of 3 percent or greater on the green, or the nearest edge of the green itself. If two edges are equidistant, both serve as the nearest edge.

Once identified, draw a perpendicular line to that edge that passes through the hole and extends infinitely in both directions. In the images I post, these are what a caddie using Golf Decoded at the WMPO recently called “Blue Zones.” A ball finishing anywhere in these blue zones gains -.2903 (meaning under par; do not confuse this with strokes gained). The ball does not need to be on the green to qualify as being in the BPN. Wherever the arrows point is the side of the line you want to be on.

SA – Side Approach

This is the angle from which you want to approach the green. Simply put, whichever direction the BPN points indicates the side you want to play from to give yourself the best chance at scoring lower.

There are specific parameters for drawing this line. It runs through the centerline of the fairway and is parallel to the shape of the hole as it approaches the green. Just like the BPN, you do not need to be in the fairway to approach from the correct side.

Each time a player approaches from the correct SA, they gain -.0597 shots relative to par. If you achieve both the BPN and SA on the same hole, you gain -.35 shots relative to par. And there is an added benefit: your chances of hitting the ball closer to the hole increase, regardless of ball flight preference or where you are playing from.

POA – Proximity on First Attempt

This is exactly what it sounds like. It is not just proximity, but proximity on your first attempt at hitting the green.

Go for a par 5 in two? That is your first attempt. Punch out from the trees on a par 4 and then hit toward the green? That second shot toward the green is your first attempt. Wherever that ball finishes is where proximity is measured, in feet.

It does not matter whether the ball finishes on the green, in the water, in a bunker, or in deep rough. The value attached to this data point is +.0058 shots for every foot away from the hole. In other words, your score relative to par increases as distance increases.

Ten feet farther from the hole raises your score by only .05 shots. Twenty feet farther raises it by just one-tenth of a shot. The marginal value of distance is smaller than most people assume.

Here is what makes Golf Decoded distinct: all of these data points are measured only once you make your first attempt at the green. Why does that matter? Because this system measures more than angles, proximity, and ball location. It measures intent.

It measures a targeted intent to move the ball closer to its final and most important resting place: the hole.

You cannot measure strategic ability until you measure intent.

Once you begin measuring intent, you begin having different conversations about scoring. The discussion shifts away from greens in regulation, fairways hit, and strokes gained categories. Instead, it centers on how to actually score: leaving uphill putts, avoiding compounding errors, not short-siding yourself, and understanding how slopes and edges dictate outcomes.

Golf is not played from flat surface to flat surface. It is played across a non-uniform terrain that must be understood and treated accordingly. If you want to truly learn how to play golf, you must learn to play it through that lens.

BPNs. SAs. POA - They’ll show us the way.

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If you look at this and tell me: “Scott, you shouldn’t hit past a back pin. You shouldn’t play from the right into a back pin. It’s dead from back there,” I would look at you and say: I used to believe that too. I challenged and doubted and fought this harder than you can imagine, but I’m here to tell you, the BPN is long and right of that blue line to a back right pin. You can hit it long and left and short and right but it must be beyond that blue line.

So now let’s talk briefly about the BPN1 and SA2 (if you don’t know what these mean, click here to read a brief description). The SA is right of the line as you’ll see below. What you’ll note from round one is that EVERY birdie was made from the right of this line. This flies in the face of the conventional notion that if the pin is on the right, you should play in from the left. And while this holds true in some cases, the nuance of Golf Decoded doesn’t allow for this. See the SA Image below:

So now let’s take a look at the BPN, in particular, where the birdies were made from (orange circles). You’ll notice that there was an equal number of birdies made from inside the BPN as there were outside the BPN, but the ones that were made from outside the BPN were more than twice as close as those from inside the BPN. In essence…the putts beyond that line are more “makeable”

But that’s not all. Let’s take a look at where the bogies were made from in the image below (dark blue circles). These are all missed putts from outside the BPN, and they were short putts…and uphill putts at that!

Seems wild? Seems unreal? Seems like I drew the lines to prove my own point? (For those new here, those lines were drawn BEFORE the start of the first round and you can find those by clicking here). So what’s going on? How is this all possible?

Well, before I give you a brief explanation, let’s take a look at the several “conventional” and generally accepted “norms” that Golf Decoded breaks apart and breaks down.

• Leave your ball below the hole (uphill putts are better)

• If the pin is on the right, you need to play in from the left

• Don’t hit it long of a back pin

• Don’t hit it right of a right pin

• Don’t “short-side yourself”

• Play from the fairway

• Angles don’t matter that much

The reason why Golf Decoded is hard to be accepted by some at first (me included, as I wrote it and tracked it) is that it doesn’t just push against one thing. It pushes against a lot of accepted thoughts and strategies about the game. These tips and thoughts about the game are true in certain and specific scenarios and Golf Decoded proves that too, but it also redefines what makes a hard shot hard, an easy shot easy, and everything in between.

Now one of the things we haven’t talked about is POA - Proximity on First Attempt. And while hitting it closer to the hole is largely a matter of skill, hitting it closer is way more than “playing with your average shot” (a good starting point for most), and hard shots are more than being “short sided” or “in the rough” or “in the sand” or “downhill putts”. One of the biggest elements that Golf Decoded espouses and proves is this:

“The angles at which you play in from and how a ball travels over and around significant slopes and edges are at the root of what makes shots easy or hard.”

Do hazards and bunkers and rough and out of bounds contribute to the difficulty of a golf course? Absolutely. Do all of the “conventional notions” have a place in affecting lower scores? Of course they do. Is it wrong to play golf with your “average shot”? By no means. It’s just that they are limited in their scope and ability to relate to all the possible shots you’ll ever face in the game of golf.

It’s certainly a game of skill and it’s equally - if not more - a game of strategy. And it’s a game of chess, not checkers, and Golf Decoded is your guide to show you how to play it, and play it masterfully.

Enjoy watching this weekend!

For more information on Golf Decoded and how to apply it to your own game, subscribe to this substack as I'll be releasing “Golf Decoded 2.0”. I wrote Golf Decoded in 2021 and have been using it to help players and coaches around the country for the last 5 years. If you'd like to purchase the original copy you can find that on Amazon here. If not, just subscribe and wait for the release in the coming weeks! Thank you for tuning in…there's more to come!

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Note: Hole 10 has been redesigned

So as we start up our 3rd week of revamping Golf Decoded (purchase on amazon) by showing you all how it plays out on tour I want to bring up a common question that I’ve received over the last 5 years as I’ve taught it to players and universities around the country. That question is this: “How is wind … and other course conditions … factored in to your data?”

Well, let’s first quickly review what I shared on Monday about what the data means. Remember, Golf Decoded ONLY includes 3 data points, and nothing else! (If you understand this section, skip down below).

BPN - Ball, Pin, Nearest Edge

This is the orientation you want your ball in relative to the flag and the “nearest edge” as defined by specific parameters I’m leaving out for now. Just note that in the images here they are in what was termed by a caddy using Golf Decoded this week at the WMPO as “Blue Zones”. A ball that finishes anywhere in these “blue zones” will pick up -.2903 (that means under par - don’t confuse with strokes gained!) and the ball doesn’t need to be on the green in order to be “in the BPN.”* Wherever the arrows point is the side of those lines you want to be on.

SA - Side Approach

This is the angle you want to play into the green from. Simply put, whichever direction the BPN is pointed is the side you want to play in from to give yourself the best chance at scoring lower. There are some specific parameters around how to draw this line that splits the fairway that I’m ignoring here. Suffice it to say, just like the BPN, you do not need to be in the fairway to play in from the correct angle. It’s also worth noting that each time a player hits it in the SA they pick up -.0597 shots (again, that’s under par - not to be confused with strokes gained version of a negative value). So if you were to hit both the BPN and the SA on the same hole you pick up -.35 shots (under par - can you tell it’s important that you understand this distinction??!!)…and you get one more benefit - your chances of hitting the ball closer to the hole increase regardless of whether your ball flight preferences or area of the course you’re playing in from.

POA - Proximity On First Attempt

That’s exactly what it sounds like. It’s not just proximity, it’s your proximity on your first attempt at hitting the green. Go for a par 5 in two? Kick a ball out of the trees on a par 4, and *then* make your first attempt at the green? That’s when you mark your POA. Wherever that first attempt at the green ends up is where we measure your proximity to the hole (in feet). And just like the others it doesn’t matter whether that ball finishes on the green, in the water, in a bunker or buried deep in the rough. The craziest part of this data point? It’s value is +.0058 shots for every foot your ball is away from the hole (meaning your score relative to par gets higher). You read that right… +.0058 shots. That means 10 feet further from the hole raises your score by only .05 shots, and 20 feet further from the hole raises your score by barely one-tenth (.1) of a shot!

So with this backdrop in mind, what do we know about playing in windy conditions? (Which is forecasted for Saturday and Sunday at Pebble). Windy conditions make it more difficult to control your golf ball in general, but more specifically, it makes it difficult to get the ball close to the hole on approach shots. So if it’s difficult to get the ball close to the hole, it’s going to matter more that you’re able to hit it on the correct side of the BPN. And with some of the small greens at Pebble, it is likely that players will be missing greens (and fairways for that matter). I know this seems simple and logical, but that’s part of the point of Golf Decoded - to keep it simple so players can have fun and play free.

Adverse conditions only serve to amplify the importance of hitting into the correct locations to mitigate potential slip ups. And here’s the thing about missing BPNs: sometimes players are able to make pars or even hole out from these locations, but repeated missing of these marks can be costly and show up as a string of bogies or a seemingly random double or worse. But what’s the truth here? Repeated courses of action can either make you better, as in the case of Gotterup and Scheffler last week; or lead you into coming up short as in the case of Matsuyama and Fitzpatrick. So who will reign supreme this week? The course, or the players? Only time will tell!

Stay tuned as we dive in deep this week and unpack a few players’ rounds, and look at the iconic 7th hole at Pebble. More analysis and data coming soon!